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Abstract

Colorado is one of the fastest growing states by both population size and median housing price. Literature has focused primarily on the determinants of migration and housing prices, however there is an absence of literature that addresses them simultaneously. The primary contribution of this study is to fill some of this gap in methodological approach. An additional contribution of this literature is the provision of analysis of migration/housing dynamics at the county level. We form and estimate via MLE a structural equation model consisting of functional forms for in-migration, out-migration and median housing price and find evidence of a simultaneous relationship, suggesting that earlier findings which examined these effects independently may be biased. Interestingly, we find that an increase in in-migration functions to lower housing prices while an increase in out-migration functions to raise prices. This is not consistent with our expectations or with most of the literature. We also find that a rise in housing prices functions to increase in-migration and decrease out-migration, which is more consistent with our predictions.

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