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Abstract

The yield curve inversion is an economic phenomenon that has long been attributed as a strong predictor of financial hardship and recessionary times. In fact, every recession except one since 1955 has been preceded by a yield curve inversion. That accuracy is off the carts, especially in the world of financial prediction. So how does it happen? Typically, a normal yield curve slopes upwards, meaning that holders of long- term debt instruments have higher yields than their shorter-term counterparts because they have assumed more risk. When the yield curve inverts, however, shorter-term maturities provide higher yields than long-term debt. This means investors view short- term debt instruments as far riskier than long-term bonds. To measure how the yield curve inversion affects the economy, this paper measures the monthly and daily data of two Treasury curve spreads against the S&P 500, Dow Jones, the industrial production index, and the unemployment rate. The findings of this paper establish that the yield curve inversion is a strong indicator, rather than predictor, of recessions using a wavelet analysis and time-series approach.

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